As of June 30th, 2023, the population of the Perth Metropolitan Area was estimated at 2,309,338. This marked a significant growth of 3.65% over the previous year. The Perth population growth 2023 calendar year alone recorded 79,623 new migrants, both from interstate and overseas, further fuelling its housing market.
The correlation between net interstate migration and property price growth in Perth has become increasingly clear, particularly when viewed alongside net overseas migration. These trends combined reveal a strong relationship between population growth and heightened demand for housing in an already competitive market.
Source: ABS, REIWA, Buyers Advocate Perth
Pandemic-Driven Migration and Its Impact on Perth Property Prices
During the Covid-19 pandemic, Western Australia (WA) experienced a surge in interstate migration as international borders closed. This led to an increased demand for housing, driving up property prices. As borders reopened, overseas migration amplified this trend, pushing prices higher in a market that was already under pressure. WA’s management of the pandemic, including its favourable handling of economic and health factors, made it an attractive destination for both interstate and international migrants seeking job opportunities and long-term stability.
This trend of interstate migration is a reliable leading indicator of property price shifts. With the current reports of heightened population growth, it is clear that increased migration directly impacts housing demand, which in turn drives prices upward. This effect is further exacerbated by constrained housing supply in many areas of Perth, amplifying competition for available properties.
Key Factors Shaping Perth’s Housing Market
However, while migration data provides valuable insights into Perth housing market forecasts, it must be considered alongside other key factors. Housing supply at the suburb level, as well as broader financial conditions like credit availability, play a crucial role in shaping local real estate markets. The notion of a single “Perth property market” can be misleading, as each suburb has its own unique demand drivers and characteristics.
Some commentators suggest that Perth’s property market has already peaked. However, with ongoing population growth, supply constraints, and downward pressure on interest rates, it’s likely that this growth phase will continue. Migration trends remain on an upward trajectory, further reinforcing the likelihood of sustained price growth in the coming years.
Source: ABS, Buyers Advocate Perth
In conclusion, while migration trends are an important indicator of property price growth, they should be considered in conjunction with other factors like supply and financial settings. Each suburb’s market is different, and expert guidance is essential to secure the right property in this ever-evolving landscape.
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